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Utrecht vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

Utrecht
Utrecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
12/16/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Utrecht57%
×Draw22%
Waalwijk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrecht
1.93
Waalwijk
1.08

Utrecht creates 79% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 98 away

creates per match

Utrecht
1.74
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

Utrecht
1.13
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

Utrecht+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw
79%
Utrecht or Waalwijk
78%
Draw or Waalwijk
43%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+
33%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals
85%
Utrecht 2+ goals
57%
Utrecht 3+ goals
30%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
66%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
29%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)
73%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.74 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Utrecht defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Utrecht scores more
57%
level
22%
Waalwijk scores more
21%

Utrecht at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utrecht vs Waalwijk

Utrecht and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht.