Utrecht 3–3 GO Ahead Eagles: Result & Stats

Utrecht

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

GO Ahead Eagles

A. Blake 90+7', 88'

Miguel Rodríguez 12'

J. Breum 73'

O. Antman 63'

E. Llansana 5'

12/15/2024

Eredivisie · Round 16Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Utrecht59%

×Draw21%

GO Ahead Eagles20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtrechtExpected goals in this matchGO Ahead Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.11

Utrecht

2.05

GO Ahead Eagles

1.11

Utrecht creates 85% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Utrecht

1.61

GO Ahead Eagles

1.06

allows per match

Utrecht

1.17

GO Ahead Eagles

2.49

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Utrecht-0.01on par

GO Ahead Eagles+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw

80%

Utrecht or GO Ahead Eagles

79%

Draw or GO Ahead Eagles

41%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+

36%

GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals

87%

Utrecht 2+ goals

61%

Utrecht 3+ goals

33%

GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals

67%

GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals

30%

GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)

75%

GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.61 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.05

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 + Utrecht defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Utrecht scores more

59%

level

21%

GO Ahead Eagles scores more

20%

Utrecht at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Y. Cathline

Utrecht · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

E. Llansana↳ E. Linthorst

9'

Enric Llansana

12'

Miguel Rodríguez

61'

V. Jensen← J. Toornstra

61'

N. Ohio← D. Min

63'

O. Antman↳ V. Edvardsen

69'

L. Everink← O. Edvardsen

70'

Evert Linthorst

70'

A. Blake← Miguel Rodríguez

73'

J. Breum↳ O. Antman

76'

S. Horemans← N. Vesterlund

86'

F. Stokkers← V. Edvardsen

88'

90+2'

90+7'

90+2'

90+3'

R. Weijenberg← O. Antman

90+7'

A. Blake↳ Y. Cathline

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtrechtGO

Overview

53%Possession47%

39Total Shots9

3.83Expected Goals (xG)1.10

7Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

39Total Shots9

8On Target3

13Off Target2

18Blocked4

22Inside Box6

17Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

402Total Passes377

351Accurate Passes298

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2