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Utiel vs Soneja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Soneja
Soneja
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Utiel41%
×Draw28%
Soneja31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.29
Soneja
1.08

Utiel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Soneja
1.02

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Soneja
1.37

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Soneja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Soneja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
69%
Utiel or Soneja
72%
Draw or Soneja
59%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
19%
Soneja wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
72%
Utiel 2+ goals
37%
Utiel 3+ goals
14%
Soneja 1+ goals
66%
Soneja 2+ goals
29%
Soneja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
57%
Soneja (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Soneja away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Soneja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Soneja attack 1.02 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Utiel scores more
41%
level
28%
Soneja scores more
31%

Utiel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Utiel 1 – 2 Soneja

Soneja beat Utiel 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.