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Utiel vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Utiel50%
×Draw27%
Rayo Ibense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.46
Rayo Ibense
0.89

Utiel creates 64% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
77%
Utiel or Rayo Ibense
73%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
50%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
25%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
77%
Utiel 2+ goals
43%
Utiel 3+ goals
18%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
59%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
22%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
69%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Utiel scores more
50%
level
27%
Rayo Ibense scores more
23%

Utiel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Utiel 2–0 Rayo Ibense

Utiel beat Rayo Ibense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.