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Utiel vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 25Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Utiel41%
×Draw28%
Racing CF Benidorm31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.30
Racing CF Benidorm
1.10

Utiel creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
69%
Utiel or Racing CF Benidorm
72%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
59%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
19%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
73%
Utiel 2+ goals
37%
Utiel 3+ goals
14%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
67%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
30%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
57%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Utiel scores more
41%
level
28%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
31%

Utiel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utiel vs Racing CF Benidorm

Utiel beat Racing CF Benidorm 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.