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Utiel vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Utiel34%
×Draw28%
Elche II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.10
Elche II
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
62%
Utiel or Elche II
72%
Draw or Elche II
66%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
13%
Elche II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
67%
Utiel 2+ goals
30%
Utiel 3+ goals
10%
Elche II 1+ goals
70%
Elche II 2+ goals
33%
Elche II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
47%
Elche II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Elche II attack 1.25 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Utiel scores more
34%
level
28%
Elche II scores more
38%

Elche II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Utiel 2 – 3 Elche II

Elche II beat Utiel 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.