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Utiel vs Castellonense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Castellonense
Castellonense
10/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Utiel35%
×Draw29%
Castellonense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.12
Castellonense
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Castellonense
1.12

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Castellonense
1.04

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Castellonense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Castellonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
64%
Utiel or Castellonense
71%
Draw or Castellonense
65%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
14%
Castellonense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
67%
Utiel 2+ goals
31%
Utiel 3+ goals
10%
Castellonense 1+ goals
68%
Castellonense 2+ goals
31%
Castellonense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
50%
Castellonense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Castellonense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Castellonense defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Castellonense attack 1.12 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Utiel scores more
35%
level
29%
Castellonense scores more
36%

Castellonense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Utiel 1–2 Castellonense

Castellonense beat Utiel 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.