Utiel 4–2 Castellón II: Result & Stats

Utiel

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Castellón II

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Utiel41%

×Draw27%

Castellón II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtielExpected goals in this matchCastellón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.18

Utiel

1.37

Castellón II

1.18

Utiel creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

1.14

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Utiel

1.20

Castellón II

1.22

allows per match

Utiel

1.14

Castellón II

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par

Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Castellón II →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Utiel or draw

68%

Utiel or Castellón II

73%

Draw or Castellón II

59%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+

19%

Castellón II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals

75%

Utiel 2+ goals

40%

Utiel 3+ goals

16%

Castellón II 1+ goals

69%

Castellón II 2+ goals

33%

Castellón II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)

56%

Castellón II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Utiel scores more

41%

level

27%

Castellón II scores more

32%

Utiel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff