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Utiel vs Burriana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burriana
Burriana
10/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Utiel51%
×Draw27%
Burriana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
1.42
Burriana
0.83

Utiel creates 71% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
Burriana
0.53

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
Burriana
1.65

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
Burriana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

Burriana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
78%
Utiel or Burriana
73%
Draw or Burriana
49%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
25%
Burriana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
76%
Utiel 2+ goals
41%
Utiel 3+ goals
17%
Burriana 1+ goals
56%
Burriana 2+ goals
20%
Burriana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
70%
Burriana (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Burriana away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + Burriana defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Burriana attack 0.53 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Utiel scores more
51%
level
27%
Burriana scores more
22%

Utiel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Utiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utiel vs Burriana

Utiel beat Burriana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.