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Uthai Thani vs Ranong United — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
1 – 1
Ranong United
Ranong United
9/13/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani54%
×Draw24%
Ranong United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.76
Ranong United
1.05

Uthai Thani creates 68% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 50 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Ranong United
0.86

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Ranong United
1.74

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Ranong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
77%
Uthai Thani or Ranong United
76%
Draw or Ranong United
46%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
30%
Ranong United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
83%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
52%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
26%
Ranong United 1+ goals
65%
Ranong United 2+ goals
28%
Ranong United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
71%
Ranong United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Ranong United defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ranong United attack 0.86 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
54%
level
24%
Ranong United scores more
23%

Uthai Thani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Ranong United

Uthai Thani and Ranong United drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.