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Uthai Thani vs Pattaya United — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pattaya United
Pattaya United
8/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani53%
×Draw24%
Pattaya United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.73
Pattaya United
1.05

Uthai Thani creates 65% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Pattaya United
0.86

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Pattaya United
1.67

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Pattaya United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
77%
Uthai Thani or Pattaya United
76%
Draw or Pattaya United
47%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
29%
Pattaya United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
82%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
52%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
25%
Pattaya United 1+ goals
65%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
28%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
70%
Pattaya United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Pattaya United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pattaya United attack 0.86 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
53%
level
24%
Pattaya United scores more
23%

Uthai Thani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Pattaya United

Uthai Thani and Pattaya United drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.