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Uthai Thani vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
2 – 2
Navy FC
Navy FC
2/20/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani55%
×Draw22%
Navy FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.92
Navy FC
1.14

Uthai Thani creates 68% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
78%
Uthai Thani or Navy FC
78%
Draw or Navy FC
45%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
32%
Navy FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
85%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
57%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
30%
Navy FC 1+ goals
68%
Navy FC 2+ goals
32%
Navy FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
71%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
55%
level
22%
Navy FC scores more
22%

Uthai Thani at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Navy FC

Uthai Thani and Navy FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.