Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uthai Thani vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
9/10/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani58%
×Draw21%
Krabi FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
2.00
Krabi FC
1.09

Uthai Thani creates 83% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
80%
Uthai Thani or Krabi FC
79%
Draw or Krabi FC
42%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
35%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
86%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
59%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
32%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
66%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
30%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
74%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
58%
level
21%
Krabi FC scores more
20%

Uthai Thani at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Uthai Thani 3–1 Krabi FC

Uthai Thani beat Krabi FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.