Uthai Thani 1–3 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Uthai Thani

FT

1 – 3

Khon Kaen United

2/17/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 22Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Uthai Thani46%

×Draw24%

Khon Kaen United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uthai ThaniExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.32

Uthai Thani

1.69

Khon Kaen United

1.32

Uthai Thani creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Uthai Thani

1.78

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Uthai Thani

1.25

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw

70%

Uthai Thani or Khon Kaen United

76%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

54%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+

24%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals

82%

Uthai Thani 2+ goals

50%

Uthai Thani 3+ goals

24%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

73%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

38%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)

61%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Uthai Thani scores more

46%

level

24%

Khon Kaen United scores more

30%

Uthai Thani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff