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Uthai Thani vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/28/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani55%
×Draw23%
Kasetsart FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.81
Kasetsart FC
1.06

Uthai Thani creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 132 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
78%
Uthai Thani or Kasetsart FC
77%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
45%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
31%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
84%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
54%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
27%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
65%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
29%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
71%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
55%
level
23%
Kasetsart FC scores more
22%

Uthai Thani at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Kasetsart FC

Uthai Thani and Kasetsart FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.