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Uthai Thani vs Kasem Bundit University — FA Cup 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thaniadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kasem Bundit University
Kasem Bundit University
10/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Uthai Thani69%
×Draw17%
Kasem Bundit University14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
2.50
Kasem Bundit University
1.03

Uthai Thani creates 143% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
2.00
Kasem Bundit University
1.40

allows per match

Uthai Thani
0.67
Kasem Bundit University
3.00

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Kasem Bundit University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
86%
Uthai Thani or Kasem Bundit University
83%
Draw or Kasem Bundit University
31%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
47%
Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
92%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
71%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
45%
Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals
64%
Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals
28%
Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
83%
Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Kasem Bundit University away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 2.00 + Kasem Bundit University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kasem Bundit University attack 1.40 + Uthai Thani defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
69%
level
17%
Kasem Bundit University scores more
14%

Uthai Thani at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Kasem Bundit University

Uthai Thani beat Kasem Bundit University 3-0 in FA Cup on October 30, 2025.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Uthai Thani.