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Uthai Thani vs Don Mueang — FA Cup 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
7 – 0
Don Mueang
Don Mueang
10/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundUthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uthai Thani73%
×Draw16%
Don Mueang10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
2.50
Don Mueang
0.83

Uthai Thani creates 201% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
2.00
Don Mueang
1.00

allows per match

Uthai Thani
0.67
Don Mueang
3.00

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Don Mueang+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Don Mueang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
90%
Uthai Thani or Don Mueang
84%
Draw or Don Mueang
27%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
51%
Don Mueang wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
92%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
71%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
45%
Don Mueang 1+ goals
56%
Don Mueang 2+ goals
20%
Don Mueang 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
87%
Don Mueang (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Don Mueang away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 2.00 + Don Mueang defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Don Mueang attack 1.00 + Uthai Thani defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
73%
level
16%
Don Mueang scores more
10%

Uthai Thani at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Uthai Thani 7–0 Don Mueang

Uthai Thani beat Don Mueang 7-0 in FA Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.