Uthai Thani 1–1 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Uthai Thani

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Buriram United

2/8/2023

FA Cup · Round of 16Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Uthai Thani38%

×Draw23%

Buriram United40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uthai ThaniExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.73

Uthai Thani

1.68

Buriram United

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

2.79

0.67

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Uthai Thani

2.00

Buriram United

2.79

allows per match

Uthai Thani

0.67

Buriram United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Buriram United →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw

60%

Uthai Thani or Buriram United

77%

Draw or Buriram United

62%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+

19%

Buriram United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals

81%

Uthai Thani 2+ goals

50%

Uthai Thani 3+ goals

24%

Buriram United 1+ goals

82%

Buriram United 2+ goals

52%

Buriram United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)

49%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 2.00 + Buriram United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Buriram United attack 2.79 + Uthai Thani defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uthai Thani scores more

38%

level

23%

Buriram United scores more

40%

Buriram United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff