Utenos Utena 0–9 Klaipėdos FM: Result & Stats | Cup

Utenos Utena

0 – 9

Klaipėdos FM

4/23/2024

Cup · 1st RoundVisagino centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Utenos Utena0%

×Draw0%

Klaipėdos FM100%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utenos UtenaExpected goals in this matchKlaipėdos FM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.00

7.00

Utenos Utena

0.00

Klaipėdos FM

7.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

5.00

9.00

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Utenos Utena

0.00

Klaipėdos FM

5.00

allows per match

Utenos Utena

9.00

Klaipėdos FM

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utenos Utena+0.00on par

Klaipėdos FM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No100

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utenos Utena ↓

Klaipėdos FM →

0–00%

0–11%

0–25%

0–312%

0–420%

1–00%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (20%) · grid covers 38% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Utenos Utena or draw

Utenos Utena or Klaipėdos FM

100%

Draw or Klaipėdos FM

100%

Winning margin

Utenos Utena wins by 2+

Klaipėdos FM wins by 2+

98%

Team goals

Utenos Utena 1+ goals

Utenos Utena 2+ goals

Utenos Utena 3+ goals

Klaipėdos FM 1+ goals

100%

Klaipėdos FM 2+ goals

98%

Klaipėdos FM 3+ goals

93%

Draw no bet

Utenos Utena (draw refunded)

Klaipėdos FM (draw refunded)

100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utenos Utena at home — creates 0.00, concedes 9.00 · 3 matches

Klaipėdos FM away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utenos Utena attack 0.00 + Klaipėdos FM defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.00

Klaipėdos FM attack 5.00 + Utenos Utena defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 7.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 100%?"

Utenos Utena scores more

level

Klaipėdos FM scores more

100%

Klaipėdos FM at 100% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 100% does not mean "Klaipėdos FM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff