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Utenos Utena vs Jonava — Cup 2020

Utenos Utena
Utenos Utena
FT
0 – 16
HT: 0 – 8
Jonava
Jonava
4/14/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Utenos Utena0%
×Draw1%
Jonava99%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utenos Utena
0.45
Jonava
7.00

Jonava creates 1456% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Utenos Utena
0.00
Jonava
5.00

allows per match

Utenos Utena
9.00
Jonava
0.90

finishing

Utenos Utena+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 95Under: 595%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utenos Utena ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–413%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (13%) · grid covers 38% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Utenos Utena or draw
1%
Utenos Utena or Jonava
99%
Draw or Jonava
100%

Winning margin

Utenos Utena wins by 2+
0%
Jonava wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

Utenos Utena 1+ goals
36%
Utenos Utena 2+ goals
8%
Utenos Utena 3+ goals
1%
Jonava 1+ goals
100%
Jonava 2+ goals
98%
Jonava 3+ goals
93%

Draw no bet

Utenos Utena (draw refunded)
0%
Jonava (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utenos Utena at home — creates 0.00, concedes 9.00 · 3 matches

Jonava away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utenos Utena attack 0.00 + Jonava defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.45

Jonava attack 5.00 + Utenos Utena defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 7.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

Utenos Utena scores more
0%
level
1%
Jonava scores more
99%

Jonava at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utenos Utena vs Jonava

Jonava beat Utenos Utena 16-0 in Cup on April 14, 2026.