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Utenis Utena vs Sveikata — Cup 2020

Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena
FT
0 – 2
Sveikata
Sveikata
6/30/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundUtenio Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Utenis Utena10%
×Draw14%
Sveikata75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utenis Utena
1.00
Sveikata
2.90

Sveikata creates 190% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Utenis Utena
0.80
Sveikata
2.60

allows per match

Utenis Utena
3.20
Sveikata
1.20

finishing

Utenis Utena+0.00on par
Sveikata+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utenis Utena ↓

Sveikata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Utenis Utena or draw
25%
Utenis Utena or Sveikata
86%
Draw or Sveikata
90%

Winning margin

Utenis Utena wins by 2+
3%
Sveikata wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Utenis Utena 1+ goals
63%
Utenis Utena 2+ goals
26%
Utenis Utena 3+ goals
8%
Sveikata 1+ goals
94%
Sveikata 2+ goals
78%
Sveikata 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Utenis Utena (draw refunded)
12%
Sveikata (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utenis Utena at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Sveikata away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utenis Utena attack 0.80 + Sveikata defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sveikata attack 2.60 + Utenis Utena defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Utenis Utena scores more
10%
level
14%
Sveikata scores more
75%

Sveikata at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sveikata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utenis Utena vs Sveikata

Sveikata beat Utenis Utena 2-0 in Cup on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Utenio Stadionas in Utena.