UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Union Comercio: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Union Comercio

7/29/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

UTC Cajamarca54%

×Draw24%

Union Comercio22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchUnion Comercio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.97

UTC Cajamarca

1.69

Union Comercio

0.97

UTC Cajamarca creates 74% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 74 away

1.41

creates per match

0.81

1.12

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Union Comercio

0.81

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Union Comercio

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Union Comercio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

78%

UTC Cajamarca or Union Comercio

76%

Draw or Union Comercio

46%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

30%

Union Comercio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

82%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

50%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

24%

Union Comercio 1+ goals

62%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

25%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

71%

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

54%

level

24%

Union Comercio scores more

22%

UTC Cajamarca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff