UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sporting Cristal

J. Quintero 90+5' (pen)

Y. Yotún 25' (pen)

S. González 16'

3/31/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UTC Cajamarca37%

×Draw26%

Sporting Cristal37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

UTC Cajamarca

1.38

Sporting Cristal

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

1.14

creates per match

1.41

1.35

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.14

Sporting Cristal

1.41

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.35

Sporting Cristal

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

63%

UTC Cajamarca or Sporting Cristal

74%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

63%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

75%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

40%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

16%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

75%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

40%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

50%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.14 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting Cristal attack 1.41 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

37%

level

26%

Sporting Cristal scores more

37%

UTC Cajamarca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Yotún

Sporting Cristal · M

8.7

Match Events

16'

S. González↳ Y. Yotún

25'

Patrick Zubczuk

25'

Y. YotúnPenalty

34'

Diego Mondino

46'

K. Ruiz← D. Mondino

53'

P. Requena← Á. Romero

61'

M. Távara← J. Pretell

62'

J. Grimaldo← J. Alarcón

71'

Martín Távara

74'

T. Cantoro← V. Perlaza

75'

Mario Otazú

78'

M. Castro← S. González

85'

87'

88'

90+7'

90+2'

Kevin RuizPenalty confirmed

90+5'

J. QuinteroPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCSporting

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots10

9Corners1

13Fouls21

Shots

20Total Shots10

5On Target4

11Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box7

11Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

330Total Passes298

257Accurate Passes226

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls21

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3