UTC Cajamarca 0–3 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

0 – 3

Sporting Cristal

2/3/2018

Primera División · Torneo de Verano - 1Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

UTC Cajamarca34%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.46

UTC Cajamarca

1.32

Sporting Cristal

1.46

Sporting Cristal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 156 away

1.41

creates per match

1.79

1.12

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Sporting Cristal

1.79

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Sporting Cristal

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

60%

UTC Cajamarca or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

66%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

15%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

73%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

38%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

43%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

46%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

34%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

40%

Sporting Cristal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff