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UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
PST
20:00
Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
8/19/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Cristo es el Señor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UTC Cajamarca51%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.98
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.41

UTC Cajamarca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 13 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.69

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.54

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
73%
UTC Cajamarca or Deportivo Llacuabamba
78%
Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba
49%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
86%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
59%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
31%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.98

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.69 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
51%
level
22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
27%

UTC Cajamarca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Match Preview

UTC Cajamarca face Deportivo Llacuabamba on August 19, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

UTC Cajamarca host Deportivo Llacuabamba at Estadio Cristo es el Señor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.