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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
3/6/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba37%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.45
UTC Cajamarca
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 144 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.27
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
62%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
18%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
18%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
77%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
43%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
50%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.27 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
37%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
38%

UTC Cajamarca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Llacuabamba vs UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Llacuabamba and UTC Cajamarca drew 2-2 in Primera División on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.