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UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
21:00
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
10/31/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Big match
42%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
42%27%31%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTC Cajamarca42%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Garcilaso31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.36
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.13

UTC Cajamarca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 60 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.13

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.32

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
69%
UTC Cajamarca or Deportivo Garcilaso
73%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
58%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
74%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
39%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.13 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
42%
level
27%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
31%

UTC Cajamarca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Deportivo Garcilaso’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
Deportivo Garcilaso
Direct / counter-attacking
47%PossessionBiggest gap41%
75%Pass accuracy74%
12.3Shots11.1
1.03xG1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UTC CajamarcaDeportivo Garcilaso

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
UTC Cajamarca
3
Draws
2
Deportivo Garcilaso
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 29%
0–20–02–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
Garcilaso
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UTC Cajamarca face Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División)

Primera División returns with UTC Cajamarca hosting Deportivo Garcilaso. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UTC Cajamarca host Deportivo Garcilaso at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.