Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Garcilaso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

F. Arancibia 73'

C. Olivares 60'

5/17/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso39%

×Draw27%

UTC Cajamarca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo GarcilasoExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.24

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.32

UTC Cajamarca

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.58

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.21

UTC Cajamarca

0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.58

UTC Cajamarca

1.44

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.62scores more

UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw

65%

Deportivo Garcilaso or UTC Cajamarca

73%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

17%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

15%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

71%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

35%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

53%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.21 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

39%

level

27%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

35%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Arancibia

Deportivo Garcilaso · F

8.7

Match Events

20'

Manuel Ganoza

40'

David Camacho

55'

F. Arancibia← K. Sandoval

57'

M. Rasmussen← M. Lliuya

58'

H. Benincasa← X. Moreno

58'

A. Arroyo← M. de Jesus

60'

C. Olivares↳ F. Arancibia

70'

J. Nunez← D. Camacho

71'

P. Serra← D. Dioses

73'

F. Arancibia↳ C. Olivares

76'

Erick Canales

78'

Arquímedes Figuera

79'

Aldair Salazar

81'

J. Sinisterra← A. Ascues

81'

J. Portales← A. Salazar

90+1'

Abdiel ArroyoGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoUTC

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots10

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.38

1Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

273Total Passes332

214Accurate Passes267

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Primera División: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Garcilaso beat UTC Cajamarca 2-0 in Primera División on May 17, 2026.

Goals: C. Olivares (60'), F. Arancibia (73').

UTC Cajamarca controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC Cajamarca