UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Deportivo Garcilaso

UTC Cajamarca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

9/3/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTC Cajamarca42%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Garcilaso31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

UTC Cajamarca

1.36

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.13

UTC Cajamarca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 60 away

1.41

creates per match

1.13

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.13

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

69%

UTC Cajamarca or Deportivo Garcilaso

73%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

58%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

74%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

39%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.13 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

42%

level

27%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

31%

UTC Cajamarca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Penny

Deportivo Garcilaso · G

8.6

Match Events

13'

Alex RambalCard upgrade

14'

Alex Rambal

38'

Joao Ortiz

45+2'

Patrick ZubczukRed card cancelled

59'

J. Sánchez← J. Fuentes

59'

O. Belinetz← R. Fernández

67'

J. Parodi← D. Dioses

67'

J. Betancourt← J. Rojas

73'

83'

84'

87'

90+3'

P. Rodríguez← K. Quevedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCDeportivo

Overview

67%Possession33%

25Total Shots8

6Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots8

8On Target3

13Off Target1

4Blocked4

13Inside Box0

12Outside Box8

Passing

67%Possession33%

450Total Passes223

374Accurate Passes148

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2