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UTC Cajamarca vs Cusco — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cusco
Cusco
8/13/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

UTC Cajamarca46%
×Draw25%
Cusco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.53
Cusco
1.16

UTC Cajamarca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 89 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Cusco
1.19

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Cusco
1.65

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
71%
UTC Cajamarca or Cusco
75%
Draw or Cusco
54%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
23%
Cusco wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
78%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
45%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
20%
Cusco 1+ goals
69%
Cusco 2+ goals
32%
Cusco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
61%
Cusco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Cusco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cusco attack 1.19 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
46%
level
25%
Cusco scores more
29%

UTC Cajamarca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs Cusco

UTC Cajamarca beat Cusco 2-1 in Primera División on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.