Cusco 1–1 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

L. Ramos 84'

K. Ruiz 90+2'

2/2/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco54%

×Draw24%

UTC Cajamarca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.97

Cusco

1.67

UTC Cajamarca

0.97

Cusco creates 72% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 144 away

1.72

creates per match

0.91

1.02

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Cusco

1.72

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Cusco

1.02

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

78%

Cusco or UTC Cajamarca

76%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

46%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

29%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

81%

Cusco 2+ goals

50%

Cusco 3+ goals

23%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

62%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

25%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

71%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cusco scores more

54%

level

24%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

22%

Cusco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Colman

Cusco · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Alan Perez

26'

Jimmy Valoyes

40'

Carlos Fernandez

64'

Lucas ColittoGoal cancelled

69'

Lucas Colitto

72'

J. Morales← N. Silva

79'

O. Valenzuela← A. Vásquez

79'

L. Ramos← M. Aucca

84'

L. Ramos↳ I. Colman

85'

Luis Ramos

86'

J. Pérez← K. Aparicio

87'

Á. Ojeda← C. Fernández

90+1'

J. Bilbao← J. Tévez

90+1'

R. Fernández← L. Colitto

90'

T. Cantoro← J. Quintero

90'

K. Ruiz← V. Perlaza

90+2'

K. Ruiz↳ P. Requena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoUTC

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots10

4Corners5

8Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

473Total Passes205

392Accurate Passes138

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1