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UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
20:00
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
8/22/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Big match
53%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
53%24%23%

100% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

UTC Cajamarca53%
×Draw24%
Comerciantes Unidos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.69
Comerciantes Unidos
1.01

UTC Cajamarca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 63 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
77%
UTC Cajamarca or Comerciantes Unidos
76%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
47%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
29%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
82%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
50%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
24%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
64%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
27%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
70%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
53%
level
24%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
23%

UTC Cajamarca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches
  • Comerciantes Unidos score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Comerciantes Unidos’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
Comerciantes Unidos
Balanced
47%Possession46%
75%Pass accuracy77%
12.2Shots11.7
1.03xGBiggest gap1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UTC CajamarcaComerciantes Unidos

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
UTC Cajamarca
3
Draws
2
Comerciantes Unidos
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 70%
2–11–11–01–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
Unidos
DLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UTC Cajamarca host Comerciantes Unidos

August 22, 2026: UTC Cajamarca take on Comerciantes Unidos in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UTC Cajamarca host Comerciantes Unidos at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.