UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 63+ matches
UTC Cajamarca53%
Comerciantes Unidos23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
UTC Cajamarca creates 67% more chances
Season form · 146 home / 63 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
UTC Cajamarca ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches
Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69
Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
UTC Cajamarca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Real Garcilaso
Deportivo Municipal
FBC Melgar
Union Comercio
Deportivo Binacional
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
Universitario
Sport Rosario
Academia Cantolao
U. San Martin
Ayacucho FCComerciantes UnidosFBC MelgarAlianza LimaAyacucho FCUniversitarioSporting CristalUnion ComercioU. San MartinReal GarcilasoAcademia CantolaoDeportivo MunicipalSport BoysComerciantes UnidosDeportivo BinacionalSport HuancayoSport RosarioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Statistics
UTC Cajamarca host Comerciantes Unidos on Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca beat Comerciantes Unidos 2-0 in Primera División on May 17, 2025.
Goals: J. Quintero (21'), E. Ramirez (49').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara in Cajamarca.