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UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
21:00
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
11/14/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Big match
47%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
47%24%29%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

UTC Cajamarca47%
×Draw24%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.66
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.26

UTC Cajamarca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.18
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.85

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.67
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.14

finishing

UTC Cajamarca-0.18scores less
Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.43scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
71%
UTC Cajamarca or Club Deportivo Los Chankas
76%
Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas
53%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
24%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
81%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
49%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
23%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
72%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
36%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
62%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.14 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.18 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.66

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.85 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
47%
level
24%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
29%

UTC Cajamarca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • UTC Cajamarca sit 13, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Balanced
47%Possession47%
75%Pass accuracy77%
12.2Shots11.8
1.03xGBiggest gap1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UTC CajamarcaClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
UTC Cajamarca
2
Draws
1
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
2–22–01–21–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
Chankas
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UTC Cajamarca face Club Deportivo Los Chankas (Primera División)

Primera División returns with UTC Cajamarca hosting Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UTC Cajamarca host Club Deportivo Los Chankas at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.