UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

UTC Cajamarca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

K. Aparicio 82'

J. Quintero 34' (pen)

4/15/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

UTC Cajamarca42%

×Draw25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

UTC Cajamarca

1.52

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.34

UTC Cajamarca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.03

creates per match

0.92

1.77

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.03

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.92

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.77

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.01

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

UTC Cajamarca-0.25scores less

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

66%

UTC Cajamarca or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

75%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

58%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

78%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

45%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

74%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

39%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

55%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.03 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.52

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.92 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

42%

level

25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

34%

UTC Cajamarca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Zubczuk

UTC Cajamarca · G

8.2

Match Events

12'

Axel Chávez

34'

J. QuinteroPenalty

43'

Marlon Ruidías

46'

V. Perlaza← R. Guevara

55'

C. Fernández← K. Ruiz

55'

D. Carabaño← A. Casquete

63'

J. Martínez← M. Ruidías

64'

G. Sánchez← A. Robles

74'

A. Murialdo← J. Manzaneda

75'

O. Takeuchi← Á. Ledesma

81'

Ederson Mogollón

82'

K. Aparicio↳ M. Otazú

85'

T. Cantoro← J. Sánchez

85'

L. Aliaga← P. Requena

90+4'

Cristian Mejia

90+3'

Cristian MejiaRed card cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCClub

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots13

6Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target6

7Off Target7

1Blocked0

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

358Total Passes421

288Accurate Passes333

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1