UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

8/3/2021

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

UTC Cajamarca44%

×Draw27%

Cesar Vallejo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

UTC Cajamarca

1.39

Cesar Vallejo

1.06

UTC Cajamarca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 99 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Cesar Vallejo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

71%

UTC Cajamarca or Cesar Vallejo

73%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

56%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

21%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

75%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

40%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

16%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

65%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

29%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

61%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

44%

level

27%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

29%

UTC Cajamarca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Fleitas

Cesar Vallejo · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

C. Vásquez← L. Trujillo

34'

S. Silva← J. Vélez

54'

E. Ciucci← D. Millán

54'

S. Morillo← F. Flores

69'

A. Blanco← P. Gallardo

69'

R. Sandoval← A. Gómez

73'

A. Huamán← L. Villalba

73'

J. Sernaqué← C. Diez

83'

Gerardo Gordillo

87'

R. Quinteros← L. da Silva

90'

Renzo Garces

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCCesar

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots6

5Corners4

19Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots6

1On Target2

7Off Target4

6Blocked0

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box0

Passing

37%Possession63%

295Total Passes506

182Accurate Passes388

62%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls19

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1