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Cesar Vallejo vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
7/26/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cesar Vallejo53%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.58
UTC Cajamarca
0.90

Cesar Vallejo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 144 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
79%
Cesar Vallejo or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
47%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
28%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
79%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
47%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
59%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
71%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
53%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
21%

Cesar Vallejo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs UTC Cajamarca

Cesar Vallejo beat UTC Cajamarca 2-0 in Primera División on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.