UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Universidad

UTC Cajamarca

PST

20:00

Alianza Universidad

11/18/2020

Primera División · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

UTC Cajamarca50%

×Draw25%

Alianza Universidad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.07

UTC Cajamarca

1.60

Alianza Universidad

1.07

UTC Cajamarca creates 50% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 62 away

1.41

creates per match

1.02

1.12

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Alianza Universidad

1.02

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Alianza Universidad

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

75%

UTC Cajamarca or Alianza Universidad

75%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

50%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

26%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

80%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

47%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

22%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

66%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

29%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alianza Universidad attack 1.02 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

50%

level

25%

Alianza Universidad scores more

25%

UTC Cajamarca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff