Alianza Universidad 1–2 UTC Cajamarca

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

UTC Cajamarca

Y. Mena 78'

E. Ramirez 41'

A. Perleche 16' (OG)

6/20/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Alianza Universidad43%

×Draw27%

UTC Cajamarca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Alianza Universidad

1.35

UTC Cajamarca

1.06

Alianza Universidad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 144 away

1.07

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.21

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

71%

Alianza Universidad or UTC Cajamarca

73%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

57%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

20%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

74%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

39%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

15%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

65%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

29%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

60%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.07 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

43%

level

27%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

29%

Alianza Universidad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Ramirez

UTC Cajamarca · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

A. PerlecheOwn goal

18'

Erinson RamirezGoal confirmed

41'

E. Ramirez↳ C. Mejia

46'

C. Rodriguez← A. Ampuero

46'

J. Sernaque← J. Escobar

46'

N. Ramirez← E. O. Vasquez Ortega

46'

R. Villamarin← L. Garro

49'

Jhon Ibargüen

54'

Jorginho SernaquéPenalty cancelled

60'

Joaquín Aguirre

66'

Piero Serra

74'

G. Balanta← E. Ramirez

78'

Y. Mena↳ N. Ramirez

79'

Yorleys MenaGoal confirmed

84'

Joaquín Aguirre

84'

Joaquín Aguirre

85'

M. Cabanillas← A. Vasquez

88'

L. De la Cruz← J. Quintero

90+13'

Yorleys Mena

90'

Rick Campodonico

90'

Jorginho Sernaqué

90+16'

Yorleys MenaGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUTC

Overview

74%Possession26%

28Total Shots6

12Corners2

8Fouls15

Shots

28Total Shots6

6On Target4

7Off Target1

15Blocked1

13Inside Box5

15Outside Box1

Passing

74%Possession26%

444Total Passes162

389Accurate Passes105

88%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs UTC Cajamarca

UTC Cajamarca beat Alianza Universidad 2-1 in Primera División on June 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Perleche (16' o.g.), E. Ramirez (41'), Y. Mena (78').

Alianza Universidad controlled possession (74%) and registered 28 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huanuco.

Alianza Universidad vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs UTC Cajamarca