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Utah Royals W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
Preview
01:30
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
10/24/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageAmerica First Field
Big match
39%
Utah Royals W
model favours
39%26%35%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Utah Royals W39%
×Draw26%
Seattle Reign FC W35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Royals W
1.39
Seattle Reign FC W
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

creates per match

Utah Royals W
1.12
Seattle Reign FC W
1.26

allows per match

Utah Royals W
1.36
Seattle Reign FC W
1.65

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw
65%
Utah Royals W or Seattle Reign FC W
74%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
61%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+
18%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals
75%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
40%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
16%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
73%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
38%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
52%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.12 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Utah Royals W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Utah Royals W scores more
39%
level
26%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
35%

Utah Royals W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Utah Royals W fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Utah Royals W
Balanced
Seattle Reign FC W
Balanced
51%Possession47%
75%Pass accuracy76%
10.6Shots8.9
1.59xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Utah Royals WSeattle Reign FC W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Utah Royals W
0
Draws
3
Seattle Reign FC W
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 60%
3–01–21–43–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLDWW
W
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Utah Royals W host Seattle Reign FC W

October 24, 2026: Utah Royals W take on Seattle Reign FC W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Utah Royals W host Seattle Reign FC W at America First Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.