Utah Royals W 1–4 Seattle Reign FC W

Utah Royals W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Seattle Reign FC W

B. St.Georges 31'

E. Adames 90' (pen), 66'

M. G. Dahlien 16'

Ji So-Yun 6'

6/21/2025

NWSL Women · Round 13America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Utah Royals W39%

×Draw27%

Seattle Reign FC W34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Utah Royals W

1.33

Seattle Reign FC W

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

1.38

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.08

Seattle Reign FC W

1.08

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.38

Seattle Reign FC W

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

66%

Utah Royals W or Seattle Reign FC W

73%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

61%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

18%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

74%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

38%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

15%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

71%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

35%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

53%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.08 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Utah Royals W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

39%

level

27%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

34%

Utah Royals W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

Ji So-Yun

Seattle Reign FC W · M

9.0

Match Events

6'

Ji So-Yun↳ M. G. Dahlien

16'

M. G. Dahlien↳ Ji So-Yun

31'

38'

45+2'

49'

64'

J. Thomsen← D. Foederer

64'

K. Riehl← P. Monaghan

66'

E. Adames↳ Ji So-Yun

71'

E. Mason← M. G. Dahlien

71'

N. Mondesir← Ji So-Yun

78'

M. Cluff← A. Tejada Jimenez

78'

I. Dorsey← M. Pogarch

81'

J. Huitema← L. Biyendolo

85'

Mina Tanaka

85'

K. Ream← B. St.Georges

88'

Nerilia MondesirPenalty confirmed

90+7'

Mandy McGlynn

90+2'

M. Mercado← E. Adames

90+2'

A. McCammon← S. Menti

90'

E. AdamesPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtahSeattle

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots10

5Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target6

4Off Target0

7Blocked4

4Inside Box7

11Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

364Total Passes313

279Accurate Passes226

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2