Utah Avalanche 1–2 Utah United: Result & Stats

Utah Avalanche

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Utah United

7/3/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 16Westminster College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Utah Avalanche19%

×Draw22%

Utah United59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah AvalancheExpected goals in this matchUtah United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.89

Utah Avalanche

0.97

Utah United

1.89

Utah United creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

2.11

1.67

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Utah Avalanche

1.00

Utah United

2.11

allows per match

Utah Avalanche

1.67

Utah United

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Avalanche+0.00on par

Utah United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Avalanche ↓

Utah United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Utah Avalanche or draw

41%

Utah Avalanche or Utah United

78%

Draw or Utah United

81%

Winning margin

Utah Avalanche wins by 2+

7%

Utah United wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Utah Avalanche 1+ goals

62%

Utah Avalanche 2+ goals

25%

Utah Avalanche 3+ goals

7%

Utah United 1+ goals

85%

Utah United 2+ goals

56%

Utah United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)

24%

Utah United (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Avalanche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Utah United away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Avalanche attack 1.00 + Utah United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Utah United attack 2.11 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Utah Avalanche scores more

19%

level

22%

Utah United scores more

59%

Utah United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Utah United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff