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Utah Avalanche vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ogden City
Ogden City
7/7/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 18Westminster College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Utah Avalanche32%
×Draw24%
Ogden City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Avalanche
1.36
Ogden City
1.64

Ogden City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Utah Avalanche
1.00
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Utah Avalanche
1.67
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Utah Avalanche+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Avalanche ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Utah Avalanche or draw
56%
Utah Avalanche or Ogden City
76%
Draw or Ogden City
68%

Winning margin

Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
14%
Ogden City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
74%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
39%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
16%
Ogden City 1+ goals
81%
Ogden City 2+ goals
49%
Ogden City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
42%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Avalanche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Avalanche attack 1.00 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Utah Avalanche scores more
32%
level
24%
Ogden City scores more
44%

Ogden City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utah Avalanche vs Ogden City

Utah Avalanche and Ogden City drew 0-0 in USL League Two on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah.