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Utah Avalanche vs New Mexico United II — USL League Two 2018

Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
6/30/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 15Westminster College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Utah Avalanche29%
×Draw24%
New Mexico United II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Avalanche
1.28
New Mexico United II
1.69

New Mexico United II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Utah Avalanche
1.00
New Mexico United II
1.72

allows per match

Utah Avalanche
1.67
New Mexico United II
1.56

finishing

Utah Avalanche+0.00on par
New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Avalanche ↓

New Mexico United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Utah Avalanche or draw
53%
Utah Avalanche or New Mexico United II
76%
Draw or New Mexico United II
71%

Winning margin

Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
12%
New Mexico United II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
72%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
37%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
14%
New Mexico United II 1+ goals
82%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
50%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
38%
New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Avalanche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Avalanche attack 1.00 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Utah Avalanche scores more
29%
level
24%
New Mexico United II scores more
47%

New Mexico United II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utah Avalanche vs New Mexico United II

New Mexico United II beat Utah Avalanche 2-1 in USL League Two on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah.