Uta Arad 2–1 FC Botosani: Result & Stats | Liga I

Uta Arad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Botosani

V. Costache 90' (pen)

D. Pospelov 22'

G. Cimpanu 77'

2/15/2026

Liga I · Round 27Arena Francisc Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Uta Arad43%

×Draw27%

FC Botosani30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Uta Arad

1.33

FC Botosani

1.06

Uta Arad creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 157 away

1.25

creates per match

1.02

1.11

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.25

FC Botosani

1.02

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.11

FC Botosani

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

FC Botosani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

70%

Uta Arad or FC Botosani

73%

Draw or FC Botosani

57%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

20%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

74%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

38%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

15%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

65%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

29%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

59%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + FC Botosani defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Botosani attack 1.02 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Uta Arad scores more

43%

level

27%

FC Botosani scores more

30%

Uta Arad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Abdallah

Uta Arad · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

D. Pospelov↳ M. Tutu

38'

Mark Tutu

46'

G. Cimpanu← S. Panoiu

46'

S. Mailat← E. Lopez

58'

M. Kovtalyuk← A. Dumiter

62'

Dmytro Pospelov

67'

L. Gojkovic← M. Tzionis

72'

S. Bodisteanu← H. Ongenda

77'

G. Cimpanu↳ C. Petro

81'

D. Hrezdac← R. Odada

86'

F. Iacob←

86'

D. Taroi← M. Tutu

90'

Valentin Costache

90+10'

Giannis Anestis

90+8'

Alexandru BotaPenalty cancelled

90+3'

A. Bota← M. Bordeianu

90'

V. CostachePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtaFC

Overview

38%Possession62%

18Total Shots19

3.15Expected Goals (xG)1.25

4Corners8

11Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots19

7On Target4

5Off Target8

6Blocked7

14Inside Box9

4Outside Box10

Passing

38%Possession62%

282Total Passes462

181Accurate Passes347

64%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0