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Uta Arad vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
12/21/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Uta Arad38%
×Draw28%
FC Astra Giurgiu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.20
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 54 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
66%
Uta Arad or FC Astra Giurgiu
72%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
62%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
16%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
70%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
34%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
12%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
67%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
31%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
53%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uta Arad scores more
38%
level
28%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
34%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uta Arad vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat Uta Arad 6-0 in Liga I on December 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.