Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uta Arad vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
12/16/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 20Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Uta Arad43%
×Draw24%
Farul Constanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.69
Farul Constanta
1.46

Uta Arad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.36
Farul Constanta
1.61

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.30
Farul Constanta
2.01

finishing

Uta Arad-0.29scores less
Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
67%
Uta Arad or Farul Constanta
76%
Draw or Farul Constanta
57%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
22%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
82%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
50%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
24%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
43%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
56%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.36 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.69

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Uta Arad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Uta Arad scores more
43%
level
24%
Farul Constanta scores more
33%

Uta Arad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 0–0 Farul Constanta

Uta Arad and Farul Constanta drew 0-0 in Liga I on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.