Farul Constanta 1–2 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Farul Constanta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Uta Arad

D. Alibec 90+5'

M. Tzionis 50'

D. Zsóri 26'

5/10/2025

Liga I · Relegation Round - 8Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Farul Constanta37%

×Draw24%

Uta Arad39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

Farul Constanta

1.52

Uta Arad

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.36

creates per match

1.28

1.84

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.36

Uta Arad

1.28

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.84

Uta Arad

1.69

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.47scores more

Uta Arad-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

61%

Farul Constanta or Uta Arad

76%

Draw or Uta Arad

63%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

18%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

78%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

45%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

20%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

79%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

46%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

49%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.36 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Uta Arad attack 1.28 + Farul Constanta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

37%

level

24%

Uta Arad scores more

39%

Uta Arad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Alibec

Farul Constanta · F

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Dániel Zsóri

25'

E. Radaslavescu← I. Larie

26'

D. Zsóri

46'

I. Doicaru← N. Grigoryan

50'

M. Tzionis↳ B. Van Durmen

53'

58'

60'

61'

73'

I. Avrămescu← L. Băsceanu

73'

73'

75'

87'

88'

A. Dragoș← V. Costache

88'

D. Țăroi← M. Tzionis

90'

D. Hrezdac← C. Mihai

90+5'

D. Alibec↳ I. Avrămescu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarulUta

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots13

1.00Expected Goals (xG)2.43

3Corners1

8Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target6

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

700Total Passes314

603Accurate Passes221

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1