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Uta Arad vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
11/6/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Iuliu Bodola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Uta Arad42%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Bucuresti32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.38
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.17

Uta Arad creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.36
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.03

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.30
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.39

finishing

Uta Arad-0.29scores less
Dinamo Bucuresti-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
68%
Uta Arad or Dinamo Bucuresti
73%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
58%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
75%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
40%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
57%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.36 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.03 + Uta Arad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Uta Arad scores more
42%
level
27%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
32%

Uta Arad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 2–1 Dinamo Bucuresti

Uta Arad beat Dinamo Bucuresti 2-1 in Liga I on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Iuliu Bodola in Oradea.