Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uta Arad

D. Politic 26'

11/2/2024

Liga I · Round 15Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti52%

×Draw22%

Uta Arad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.26

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.90

Uta Arad

1.26

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

2.10

creates per match

1.19

1.33

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

2.10

Uta Arad

1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.33

Uta Arad

1.69

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.32scores less

Uta Arad-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

75%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Uta Arad

78%

Draw or Uta Arad

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

30%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

56%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

29%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

72%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

36%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

67%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 2.10 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.90

Uta Arad attack 1.19 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

52%

level

22%

Uta Arad scores more

25%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Golubović

Dinamo Bucuresti · G

8.0

Match Events

22'

Antonio Luna← R. Opruț

26'

D. Politic

56'

R. Patriche← J. Homawoo

57'

G. Milanov← H. Abdallah

60'

V. Costache← L. Ghezali

70'

A. Vuletich← J. Attah Kadiri

70'

João Pedro← D. Hrezdac

75'

76'

78'

78'

87'

A. Mărginean← D. Politic

87'

A. Caragea← C. Cîrjan

89'

Antonio Luna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoUta

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots12

4Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target5

3Off Target4

5Blocked3

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

493Total Passes316

395Accurate Passes229

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2